WHY INTER MILAN CAN BEAT MAN CITY: LUKAKU AND GUARDIOLA'S KRYPTONITE FORMATION AMONG 5 KEYS TO CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL
Manchester City are huge favourites for Saturday’s Champions League final against Internazionale in Istanbul.
Europe’s top competition is the final frontier for Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering side and would complete a historic treble.
However, star midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is taking nothing for granted.
“Inter are a very good team. Finals are 50/50. It is always difficult,” he said. “You have to manage these moments. There will be moments when it is tough but in the big moments we try to do our job.
“Inter have great players and we have respect for them. They haven’t got to the final by beating easy teams.”
So De Bruyne is aware of the threat to City’s bid for a clean sweep, but have you written off the Nerazzuri like most other people? Here, the Sporting News looks at some reasons why Simeone Inzaghi’s men can get the job done and continue Guardiola’s Champions League torment.
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3-5-2: Pep Guardiola's tactical kryptonite?
Inzaghi sets Inter up in a fluent and attacking 3-5-2, with an onus on his wingbacks Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco to get forward in support of the front two. Don’t pick up on an Italian team playing three centre-backs and expect a stereotypical display of catenaccio, though.
Alessandro Bastoni and Francesco Acerbi will want to make sure John Stones isn’t the only central defender roving into midfield, while a central trio of Hakan Calhanoglu, Nicolo Barella and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are built to create rather than destroy.
The ominous news for Inter is that City’s best and most emphatic performances this season have come against teams set up to attack them, with their romping home wins over RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid during the Champions League knockout stages all examples of this.
However, some of Guardiola’s worst moments at the helm have come against teams playing a 3-5-2. The most punishing of these were the 2020 Champions League quarterfinal loss to Lyon and the final defeat to Chelsea the following season, both examples of Guardiola “overthinking” in the face of a tactical problem presented by the opposition.
Subsequent tweaks to his tactical setup mean the formation has not looked like so much of a problem since Kai Havertz scored the only goal in Porto, but Inzaghi’s Inter present one throwback problem that you don’t see too much of nowadays.
Lukaku, Martinez, Dzeko – Inter forward firepower
One of Inzaghi’s main selection quandaries ahead of the final will be whether to start Romelu Lukaku or former City favourite Edin Dzeko alongside Argentina striker Lautaro Martinez. What is beyond dispute is that he will start with two strikers.
City’s reshuffling of their backline, with Stones playing in a hybrid defender/midfield role as the shape shifts from a back four in possession to three without the ball, has been key to their relentless form from February onwards. But they have rarely come up against a conventional front two during this period.
Inzaghi will hope his forward pairing can punch holes in City’s unconventional setup, especially in moments of transition, where Lukaku’s pace in behind might get him the nod over the evergreen Dzeko.
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Inzaghi’s 16-man game and Inter's subs
Whoever out of Lukaku or Dzeko ends up on the bench, it’s unlikely they’ll be kicking their heels all night. More so than perhaps any other elite coach, Inzaghi has embraced the five-substitutions era and almost always uses his full allocation.
At odds with some of the off-the-cuff play his midfield creatives can produce, Inzaghi’s use of his subs is formulaic and often looks pre-programmed. Inside the final half hour, he will typically replace both wingbacks and both strikers, meaning the likes of Raoul Bellanova, Robin Gosens, Joaquin Correa and Lukaku are primed to provide fresh problems for weary legs.
Each coach’s use of their bench perhaps marks the biggest contrast in their approaches. If things are going well for City, Guardiola is loath to make any changes that might upset the rhythm of the game. In the away draws against RB Leipzig and Real Madrid he didn’t make a single alteration.
The fact Guardiola has settled upon a starting Champions League line-up featuring both Bernardo Silva and cup-final hero Ilkay Gundogan — the two playmakers he looks towards for his ever-desired control — makes changes even less likely. Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez are phenomenal options to have in reserve but their introductions are likely to make the action more chaotic.
Guardiola also likes to operate with a squad deep in quality but light on numbers. He will take a party of 16 senior outfield players to Istanbul. This approach has unquestionably worked but there might be tired legs to exploit when Inzaghi customarily sends for the cavalry.
Cup final specialists
If there’s one thing Inzaghi likes more than making loads of substitutions, it’s cup finals. He masterminded Lazio’s run to the 2018/19 Coppa Italia and also won the Supercoppa Italiana in 2017 and 2019 with the Biancocelesti.
Since succeeding Antonio Conte at Inter in 2021, he’s added two Coppas Italia and a couple more Suppercoppas to his collection. Martinez scored both goals to down Europa Conference League finalists Fiorentina in last month’s cup final.
City should present a far sterner challenge but Inzaghi relishes these occasions and his Inter players have clearly tapped into his know-how.
Inter's form – 11 wins out of 12
All the understandable focus on the City juggernaut means Inter’s form has gone slightly under the radar. That Coppa Italia final win was one of 11 wins in their past 12 matches. The only blemish came the weekend before the showpiece against Fiorentina as Inzaghi shuffled his pack for a 3-1 defeat to Serie A champions Napoli.
Throw in the fact that Inter claimed a stirring win over bitter rivals Milan to reach the Champions League final and it becomes clear that City are not the only team heading to Istanbul on the crest of a wave.
2023-06-07T06:03:55Z dg43tfdfdgfd